Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Milano, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 June 2026, Wednesday


	Federico Arnaboldi		Petr Nesterov

	1	2
			Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.87	1.83
	1.95	1.87
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.87	1.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)	1.84 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Federico Arnaboldi
49.6%

Petr Nesterov
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Arnaboldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Petr Nesterov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Federico Arnaboldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petr Nesterov than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Petr Nesterov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Federico Arnaboldi - Petr Nesterov Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 585. Nesterov is ranked ATP: 396.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Nesterov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arnaboldi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Federico Arnaboldi - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Petr Nesterov - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Arnaboldi
ITF Tournaments
16.06.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Gilberto Ravasio	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.05.26	Pietro Orlando Fellin - Federico Arnaboldi	Arnaboldi F. Retired ✺
24.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Sergio Callejon Hernando	2:0 ✺
19.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
18.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Giorgio Tabacco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 W?WLW
- Petr Nesterov
ATP Challenger
09.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Marco Cecchinato	0:2 ✺
08.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:1 ✺
07.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Michele Mecarelli	2:0 ✺
25.05.26	Petr Nesterov - Samuele Pieri	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	Petr Nesterov - Daniel Bagnolini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
23.07.24	Federico Arnaboldi - Petr Nesterov	2:0

Federico Arnaboldi - Petr Nesterov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide