Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cervia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 May 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cervia 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Federico Arnaboldi		Carlo Alberto Caniato

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Federico Arnaboldi
47.5%

Carlo Alberto Caniato
52.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.7%

54.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federico Arnaboldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Carlo Alberto Caniato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Arnaboldi than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Arnaboldi is ranked ATP: 481. Caniato is ranked ATP: 376.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Caniato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federico Arnaboldi
ATP Challenger
18.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Giorgio Tabacco	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Inaki Montes De La Torre	0:2 ✺
04.05.26	Jay Clarke - Federico Arnaboldi	2:0 ✺
29.04.26	Federico Arnaboldi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLL
- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ATP Challenger
21.04.26	Laslo Djere - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Miguel Damas - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Alessandro Spadola - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.04.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Juan Cruz Martin Manzano	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Lucca Helguera Casado	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLW

Federico Arnaboldi - Carlo Alberto Caniato