Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Quinta Do Lago (Portugal), hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday


	Finn Bass		Diogo Marques

	1	2
			Watch
	1.36	2.8
	1.37	2.92
	1.38	2.9	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.39	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.6)	2.84 ↑ (2.22)

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Finn Bass
67.3%

Diogo Marques
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Finn Bass has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Finn Bass's performance.

Diogo Marques has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Diogo Marques might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finn Bass than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Finn Bass that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diogo Marques than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Diogo Marques could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Finn Bass - Diogo Marques Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Bass is ranked ATP: 953. Marques is ranked ATP: 853.

Recent matches Bass is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Marques is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bass could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bass will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Finn Bass
ATP Challenger
17.02.25	Finn Bass - Raul Brancaccio	1:2 ✺
16.02.25	Gerard Campana Lee - Finn Bass	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.02.25	Rudolf Molleker - Finn Bass	2:0 ✺
24.01.25	Finn Bass - Tom Paris	0:2 ✺
23.01.25	Finn Bass - Niels Visker	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW
- Diogo Marques
ITF Tournaments
26.02.25	Sergey Fomin - Diogo Marques	2:1 ✺
19.02.25	Joao Graca - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
13.02.25	Cezar Cretu - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
12.02.25	Rein Koenders - Diogo Marques	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.01.25	Ivan Gakhov - Diogo Marques	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

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