Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday


	Francesca Jones		Federica Urgesi

	1	2
	1.30	3.40	Watch
	1.30	3.40
	1.32	3.25
	1.33	3.57
	1.31	3.22	Watch
	1.29	3.50
	1.31	3.44	Watch
	1.30	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.38)	3.37 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesca Jones
72%

Federica Urgesi
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesca Jones has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Federica Urgesi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesca Jones than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesca Jones that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federica Urgesi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Francesca Jones - Federica Urgesi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jones is ranked WTA: 123. Urgesi is ranked WTA: 287.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Jones is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesca Jones
ATP Challenger
13.07.26	Francesca Jones - Dalila Spiteri	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Francesca Jones - Leolia Jeanjean	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Francesca Jones - Alice Rame	2:0 ✺
WTA Wimbledon
29.06.26	Francesca Jones - Diane Parry	0:2 ✺
WTA Eastbourne
22.06.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Francesca Jones	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLWLL
- Federica Urgesi
ATP Challenger
13.07.26	Yelyzaveta Kotliar - Federica Urgesi	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
09.07.26	Federica Urgesi - Arantxa Rus	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Federica Urgesi - Lucija Ciric Bagaric	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Katerina Tsygourova - Federica Urgesi	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.06.26	Tamara Zidansek - Federica Urgesi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWLL

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