Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 July 2026, Monday


	Yelyzaveta Kotliar		Federica Urgesi

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.90	1.40
	2.75	1.39	Watch
	3	1.43
	2.83	1.39	Watch
	2.95	1.41
	2.68	1.48	Watch
	2.75	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.35)	1.41 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yelyzaveta Kotliar
33.3%

Federica Urgesi
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

64.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yelyzaveta Kotliar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yelyzaveta Kotliar's form might have worsened.

Federica Urgesi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Federica Urgesi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yelyzaveta Kotliar than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Yelyzaveta Kotliar - Federica Urgesi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Kotliar is ranked WTA: 451. Urgesi is ranked WTA: 293.

Kotliar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Urgesi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Urgesi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Urgesi will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yelyzaveta Kotliar
ATP Challenger
12.07.26	Amandine Hesse - Yelyzaveta Kotliar	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Yelyzaveta Kotliar - Oksana Selekhmeteva	0:2 ✺
06.07.26	Liv Boulard - Yelyzaveta Kotliar	0:2 ✺
05.07.26	Tayisiya Morderger - Yelyzaveta Kotliar	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.06.26	Yelyzaveta Kotliar - Iva Ivanova	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLWW?
- Federica Urgesi
ITF Tournaments
09.07.26	Federica Urgesi - Arantxa Rus	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Federica Urgesi - Lucija Ciric Bagaric	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Katerina Tsygourova - Federica Urgesi	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.06.26	Tamara Zidansek - Federica Urgesi	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
07.06.26	Federica Urgesi - Alessandra Mazzola	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLW

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