Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Bucharest 2, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday


	Gaia Squarcialupi		Maria Sara Popa

	1	2
	2.54	1.44
	2.66	1.45
	2.64	1.45	Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.47	1.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (1.83)	1.47 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gaia Squarcialupi
36.4%

Maria Sara Popa
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gaia Squarcialupi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gaia Squarcialupi's form might have worsened.

Maria Sara Popa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maria Sara Popa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gaia Squarcialupi than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gaia Squarcialupi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Sara Popa than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maria Sara Popa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gaia Squarcialupi - Maria Sara Popa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Squarcialupi is ranked WTA: 672. Popa is ranked WTA: 682.

Squarcialupi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Popa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Squarcialupi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

We predict that Popa will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Squarcialupi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gaia Squarcialupi
ITF Tournaments
08.05.25	Gaia Squarcialupi - Briana Szabo	2:1 ✺
06.05.25	Gaia Squarcialupi - Linda Sevcikova	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Gaia Squarcialupi - Linea Bajraliu	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Jenny Duerst - Gaia Squarcialupi	2:0 ✺
28.03.25	Adrienn Nagy - Gaia Squarcialupi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLW
- Maria Sara Popa
ITF Tournaments
08.05.25	Maria Sara Popa - Ilinca Dalina Amariei	2:1 ✺
06.05.25	Maria Sara Popa - Diana Simionescu	2:0 ✺
01.05.25	Stefania Bojica - Maria Sara Popa	0:2 ✺
30.04.25	Maria Sara Popa - Sophia Ksandinov	2:0 ✺
04.04.25	Katharina Hobgarski - Maria Sara Popa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.10.22	Gaia Squarcialupi - Maria Sara Popa	1:2

Gaia Squarcialupi - Maria Sara Popa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide