Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Poznan (Poland), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 June 2024, Tuesday

Referee: Borghei A. (Irn)


	Gastao Elias		Daniel Michalski

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.55	2.3
	1.52	2.37	Watch
	1.58	2.42
	1.58	2.43
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.54	2.4	Watch
	1.54	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (2.06)	2.37 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gastao Elias
60.5%

Daniel Michalski
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gastao Elias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gastao Elias's performance.

Daniel Michalski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniel Michalski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gastao Elias than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gastao Elias that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Michalski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Gastao Elias - Daniel Michalski Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Elias will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Michalski will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Michalski could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gastao Elias
ATP Challenger
17.06.24	Gastao Elias - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
16.06.24	Gastao Elias - Alexander Blus	2:0 ✺
09.06.24	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Gastao Elias	2:1 ✺
04.06.24	Oriol Roca Batalla - Gastao Elias	2:0 ✺
03.06.24	Riccardo Bonadio - Gastao Elias	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLLW
- Daniel Michalski
ATP Challenger
17.06.24	Mircea Alexandru Jecan - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
16.06.24	Sebastian Gima - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.06.24	Daniel Michalski - Toby Martin	1:2 ✺
11.06.24	Daniel Michalski - Leopold Zima	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.05.24	Lucas Gerch - Daniel Michalski	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL

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