Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: CAGLIARI (ITALY), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 3 May 2023, Wednesday


	Gianluca Mager		Ugo Humbert

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.35	1.55	Watch
	2.29	1.6
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.27	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.64)	1.57 ↑ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gianluca Mager
40.6%

Ugo Humbert
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gianluca Mager has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gianluca Mager's performance.

Ugo Humbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ugo Humbert might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianluca Mager than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gianluca Mager that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ugo Humbert could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Gianluca Mager - Ugo Humbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Mager will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Humbert will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Humbert: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Mager could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Humbert will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gianluca Mager
ATP Challenger
02.05.23	Gianluca Mager - Salvatore Caruso	2:0 ✺
01.05.23	Gianluca Mager - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
27.04.23	Gianluca Mager - Jesper De Jong	0:2 ✺
25.04.23	Maximilian Neuchrist - Gianluca Mager	0:2 ✺
20.04.23	Filip Misolic - Gianluca Mager	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWL
- Ugo Humbert
ATP Madrid
26.04.23	Emil Ruusuvuori - Ugo Humbert	2:0 ✺
ATP Munich
18.04.23	Christopher OConnell - Ugo Humbert	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.23	Ugo Humbert - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
09.04.23	Dusan Lajovic - Ugo Humbert	1:2 ✺
08.04.23	Lucas Catarina - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWW

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