Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 June 2025, Tuesday


	Giovanni Fonio		Max Houkes

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.36	2.9
			Watch
	1.43	2.9
			Watch
			Watch
	1.4	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.7)	2.9 ↑ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giovanni Fonio
67.7%

Max Houkes
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giovanni Fonio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Giovanni Fonio's performance.

Max Houkes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Max Houkes might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giovanni Fonio than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Giovanni Fonio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Max Houkes than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Max Houkes could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Giovanni Fonio - Max Houkes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Fonio (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Giovanni Fonio will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Giovanni Fonio will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fonio (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fonio is ranked ATP: 378. Houkes is ranked ATP: 256.

Fonio is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Houkes has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fonio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fonio is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fonio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giovanni Fonio
ATP Challenger
23.06.25	Tom Gentzsch - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
22.06.25	Gianluca Mager - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
17.06.25	Giovanni Fonio - Oriol Roca Batalla	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Oriol Roca Batalla - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Federico Iannaccone - Giovanni Fonio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWW
- Max Houkes
ATP Challenger
24.06.25	Francesco Forti - Max Houkes	Canceled ✺
ATP Hertogenbosch
08.06.25	Max Houkes - Alexander Blockx	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
03.06.25	Max Houkes - Viktor Durasovic	0:2 ✺
20.05.25	Daniel Michalski - Max Houkes	2:1 ✺
20.05.25	Dino Prizmic - Max Houkes	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 ?LLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
23.03.25	Max Houkes - Giovanni Fonio	1:2

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