Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 June 2025, Sunday


	Gianluca Mager		Giovanni Fonio

	1	2
			Watch
	2.5	1.45
			Watch
	2.83	1.42
			Watch
	2.5	1.5	Watch
	2.73	1.42	Watch
	2.21	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.21)	1.48 ↓ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gianluca Mager
36.7%

Giovanni Fonio
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gianluca Mager has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gianluca Mager's form might have worsened.

Giovanni Fonio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Giovanni Fonio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gianluca Mager than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giovanni Fonio than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

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Preview

Mager is ranked ATP: 431. Fonio is ranked ATP: 376.

Mager has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Fonio has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mager may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fonio will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Giovanni Fonio - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.7%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gianluca Mager
ATP Challenger
15.06.25	Ryan Nijboer - Gianluca Mager	Mager G. retired ✺
08.06.25	Alexander Weis - Gianluca Mager	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Gianluca Mager - Oleg Prihodko	0:2 ✺
09.05.25	Nicolas Kicker - Gianluca Mager	2:0 ✺
08.05.25	Pedro Boscardin Dias - Gianluca Mager	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 ?LLLW
- Giovanni Fonio
ATP Challenger
17.06.25	Giovanni Fonio - Oriol Roca Batalla	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Oriol Roca Batalla - Giovanni Fonio	0:2 ✺
15.06.25	Federico Iannaccone - Giovanni Fonio	1:2 ✺
08.06.25	Giovanni Fonio - Pierluigi Basile	0:2 ✺
26.05.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Giovanni Fonio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWLL

Gianluca Mager - Giovanni Fonio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide