Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shymkent 2 - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Giuseppe La Vela		Yannik Kelm

	1	2
	1.37	2.85
	1.39	3.1
	1.36	2.91	Watch
	1.36	3
	1.36	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.57)	2.95 ↑ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giuseppe La Vela
68.3%

Yannik Kelm
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giuseppe La Vela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Giuseppe La Vela's performance.

Yannik Kelm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yannik Kelm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giuseppe La Vela than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Giuseppe La Vela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yannik Kelm than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Yannik Kelm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Giuseppe La Vela - Yannik Kelm Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

La Vela is ranked ATP: 519. Kelm is ranked ATP: 786.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

La Vela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

La Vela could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Giuseppe La Vela - the odds 1.57 are the expected chance of winning is 58.9%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giuseppe La Vela
ATP Challenger
20.04.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Daniil Ostapenkov	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Nikita Belozertsev	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
04.04.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Philip Henning	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Max Houkes - Giuseppe La Vela	0:2 ✺
02.04.26	Niccolo Catini - Giuseppe La Vela	Catini N. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LWWW?
- Yannik Kelm
ATP Challenger
19.04.26	Ergi Kirkin - Yannik Kelm	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
08.04.26	Yannik Kelm - Louis Tessa	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Tiago Torres - Yannik Kelm	2:1 ✺
03.04.26	Yannik Kelm - Yanki Erel	2:0 ✺
02.04.26	Yannik Kelm - Luca Wiedenmann	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LLLWW

Giuseppe La Vela - Yannik Kelm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide