Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2025, Monday


	Gregoire Barrere		Elias Ymer

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.74	2.12
	1.74	2.05	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.71	2.04	Watch
	1.72	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.81)	2.02 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gregoire Barrere
53.7%

Elias Ymer
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gregoire Barrere has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Elias Ymer has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gregoire Barrere than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elias Ymer than the current prediction. (+2%)

Gregoire Barrere - Elias Ymer Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Barrere is ranked ATP: 220. Ymer is ranked ATP: 259.

Barrere has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ymer's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ymer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barrere won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Elias Ymer - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 49.73%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gregoire Barrere
ATP Challenger
29.04.25	Mariano Navone - Gregoire Barrere	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Francisco Comesana - Gregoire Barrere	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Gregoire Barrere - Stefano Travaglia	2:0 ✺
16.04.25	Gregoire Barrere - Luca Van Assche	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Mili Poljicak - Gregoire Barrere	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWWL
- Elias Ymer
ATP Challenger
21.04.25	Elias Ymer - Sandro Kopp	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Elias Ymer - Gianluca Mager	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Elias Ymer - Mika Brunold	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
30.03.25	Elias Ymer - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.03.25	Elias Ymer - Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
08.05.19	Elias Ymer - Gregoire Barrere	2:0

Gregoire Barrere - Elias Ymer: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide