Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Jiujiang, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Heather Watson		Kyoka Okamura

	1	2
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.35	2.95	Watch
	1.41	3.05
	1.36	2.93	Watch
	1.4	2.9
	1.37	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.69)	2.99 ↑ (2.04)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heather Watson
68.6%

Kyoka Okamura
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

44.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heather Watson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heather Watson's performance.

Kyoka Okamura has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kyoka Okamura might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heather Watson than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heather Watson that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoka Okamura than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kyoka Okamura could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Heather Watson - Kyoka Okamura Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Watson will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Okamura will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okamura: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Watson is ranked WTA: 354. Okamura is ranked WTA: 285.

Recent performances by Watson have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Okamura is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Watson may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Watson is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Watson won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Kyoka Okamura - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.31%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heather Watson
ATP Challenger
05.05.26	Mananchaya Sawangkaew - Heather Watson	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
28.04.26	Heather Watson - Aoi Ito	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Daria Snigur - Heather Watson	Watson H. retired ✺
19.03.26	Greetje Minnen - Heather Watson	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Pia Lovric - Heather Watson	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WL?LW
- Kyoka Okamura
ATP Challenger
05.05.26	Dalila Spiteri - Kyoka Okamura	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
11.04.26	Kyoka Okamura - Hina Inoue	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Aoi Ito - Kyoka Okamura	1:2 ✺
09.04.26	Ena Koike - Kyoka Okamura	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Sayaka Ishii - Kyoka Okamura	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWWWW

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