Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cary - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 29 June 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Cary 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Hiroki Moriya		Edward Winter

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Hiroki Moriya
41.9%

Edward Winter
58.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.6%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hiroki Moriya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hiroki Moriya's performance.

Edward Winter has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Edward Winter might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Edward Winter than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Moriya is ranked ATP: 490. Winter is ranked ATP: 432.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Winter may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Winter could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Alex Rybakov - Hiroki Moriya	Rybakov A. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
19.06.26	Hiroki Moriya - Hoyoung Roh	0:2 ✺
18.06.26	Kuan-Yi Lee - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
17.06.26	Uisung Park - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	Seung Woo Cho - Hiroki Moriya	Cho Seung Woo Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 ?LWW?
- Edward Winter
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Ian Mayew - Edward Winter	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.06.26	Oscar Weightman - Edward Winter	2:1 ✺
24.06.26	Noah Lopez Cherubino - Edward Winter	Lopez Cherubino N. Retired ✺
23.06.26	Izan Garcia Orgiles Retamero - Edward Winter	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.06.26	Oliver Crawford - Edward Winter	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WL?WL

Hiroki Moriya - Edward Winter