Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Hiroki Moriya		Michele Ribecai

	1	2
			Watch
	2	1.7	Watch
	2.19	1.61	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.23	1.58	Watch
	2.1	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.84)	1.65 ↓ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hiroki Moriya
43.7%

Michele Ribecai
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hiroki Moriya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hiroki Moriya's form might have worsened.

Michele Ribecai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Michele Ribecai's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hiroki Moriya than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michele Ribecai than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Hiroki Moriya - Michele Ribecai Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Moriya will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Ribecai will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ribecai (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Moriya is ranked ATP: 515. Ribecai is ranked ATP: 420.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ribecai may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Hiroki Moriya - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.97%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Michele Ribecai - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.03%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hiroki Moriya
ATP Challenger
17.01.26	Sanhui Shin - Hiroki Moriya	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Joel Schwaerzler - Hiroki Moriya	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Shintaro Imai - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Markus Malaszszak - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
25.11.25	Hiroki Moriya - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWL
- Michele Ribecai
ATP Challenger
17.01.26	Lachlan McFadzean - Michele Ribecai	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Michele Ribecai - Christian Langmo	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Michele Ribecai - Koki Matsuda	1:2 ✺
26.11.25	Alberto Barroso Campos - Michele Ribecai	2:1 ✺
24.11.25	Michele Ribecai - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLW

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