Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nonthaburi - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Michele Ribecai		Koki Matsuda

	1	2
			Watch
	1.21	3.95	Watch
	1.03	9.44	Watch
	1.22	4
	1.22	3.84	Watch
	1.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.31)	4.98 ↑ (3.27)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michele Ribecai
80.8%

Koki Matsuda
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michele Ribecai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Michele Ribecai's performance.

Koki Matsuda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Koki Matsuda might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michele Ribecai than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michele Ribecai that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Koki Matsuda than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Koki Matsuda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Michele Ribecai - Koki Matsuda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ribecai is ranked ATP: 425. Matsuda is ranked ATP: 608.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Ribecai is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michele Ribecai
ATP Challenger
26.11.25	Alberto Barroso Campos - Michele Ribecai	2:1 ✺
24.11.25	Michele Ribecai - Diego Dedura-Palomero	2:1 ✺
18.11.25	Francesco Passaro - Michele Ribecai	2:0 ✺
17.11.25	Michele Ribecai - Sergio Callejon Hernando	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Michele Ribecai - Giorgio Ricca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWW
- Koki Matsuda
ATP Challenger
16.11.25	Koki Matsuda - Yusuke Kusuhara	1:2 ✺
16.11.25	Koki Matsuda - Ren Nakamura	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Yusuke Takahashi - Koki Matsuda	2:0 ✺
05.11.25	Duje Ajdukovic - Koki Matsuda	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Koki Matsuda - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWLLW

Michele Ribecai - Koki Matsuda: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide