Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brasilia 2, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday


	Igor Marcondes		Gustavo Heide

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
			Watch
	2.7	1.4	Watch
	3.4	1.35
	2.94	1.35	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	3.26	1.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.34)	1.36 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Igor Marcondes
30.5%

Gustavo Heide
69.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Igor Marcondes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Igor Marcondes's form might have worsened.

Gustavo Heide has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gustavo Heide's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Igor Marcondes than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gustavo Heide than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Igor Marcondes - Gustavo Heide Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Marcondes will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Heide will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heide: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Marcondes (votes: 1 - 50%). Heide (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Marcondes is ranked ATP: 307. Heide is ranked ATP: 301.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Marcondes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Heide could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marcondes won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Igor Marcondes
ATP Challenger
03.03.26	Igor Marcondes - Pedro Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
25.02.26	Igor Marcondes - Juan Bautista Torres	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Igor Marcondes - Franco Agamenone	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Igor Marcondes - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Igor Marcondes - Jaime Faria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLW
- Gustavo Heide
ATP Challenger
02.03.26	Gustavo Heide - Daniel Elahi Galan	2:1 ✺
ATP Santiago
21.02.26	Dino Prizmic - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Gustavo Heide - Vit Kopriva	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Liam Draxl - Gustavo Heide	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Gabriel Diallo - Gustavo Heide	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
02.12.21	Igor Marcondes - Gustavo Heide	1:2
ITF Tournaments
21.10.21	Igor Marcondes - Gustavo Heide	0:2

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