Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Phan Thiet, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday


	Ilia Simakin		Daniel Michalski

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
			Watch
	1.52	2.36	Watch
	1.51	2.67
	1.53	2.37	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.72)	2.37 ↑ (1.99)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilia Simakin
60.7%

Daniel Michalski
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

46.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilia Simakin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ilia Simakin's performance.

Daniel Michalski has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniel Michalski might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilia Simakin than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ilia Simakin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Michalski than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Michalski could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Ilia Simakin - Daniel Michalski Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Simakin will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Simakin (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Simakin (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Simakin is ranked ATP: 275. Michalski is ranked ATP: 257.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Michalski may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ilia Simakin
ATP Challenger
23.01.26	Ilia Simakin - Robin Bertrand	2:1 ✺
21.01.26	Omar Jasika - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Pol Martin Tiffon - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.01.26	Niels Visker - Ilia Simakin	2:0 ✺
16.01.26	Dominik Palan - Ilia Simakin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW
- Daniel Michalski
ATP Challenger
22.01.26	Daniel Michalski - Darwin Blanch	2:1 ✺
20.01.26	Federico Cina - Daniel Michalski	0:2 ✺
19.01.26	Kaichi Uchida - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Marat Sharipov - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Yuta Shimizu - Daniel Michalski	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWWLW

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