Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: HELSINKI (FINLAND), HARD (INDOOR) - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 8 November 2023, Wednesday


	Jakub Mensik		Sumit Nagal

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.48	2.45
	1.48	2.5	Watch
	1.48	2.71
	1.48	2.72
	1.4	2.75
	1.44	2.64	Watch
	1.47	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.57)	2.61 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jakub Mensik
64.2%

Sumit Nagal
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jakub Mensik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jakub Mensik's performance.

Sumit Nagal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sumit Nagal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jakub Mensik than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jakub Mensik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumit Nagal than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sumit Nagal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Jakub Mensik - Sumit Nagal Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Mensik will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Nagal will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mensik: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mensik is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Nagal is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mensik will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jakub Mensik
ATP Challenger
07.11.23	Flavio Cobolli - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
10.10.23	Jiri Vesely - Jakub Mensik	Canceled ✺
04.10.23	Jack Draper - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Elias Ymer - Jakub Mensik	2:0 ✺
27.09.23	Dennis Novak - Jakub Mensik	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 W?LL?
- Sumit Nagal
ATP Challenger
07.11.23	Dennis Novak - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
ATP Basel
21.10.23	Sumit Nagal - Dominik Koepfer	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.10.23	Sumit Nagal - Ugo Blanchet	Nagal S. retired ✺
ATP Shanghai
02.10.23	Sumit Nagal - Luke Saville	0:2 ✺
ATP Asian Games
27.09.23	Zhizhen Zhang - Sumit Nagal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WL?LL

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