Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Roehampton 2, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 August 2026, Tuesday


	Jay Dylan Hara Friend		Michael Geerts

	1	2
	1.48	2.45
	1.45	2.55
	1.46	2.79
	1.4	2.71	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.45	2.56	Watch
	1.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.57)	2.64 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jay Dylan Hara Friend
64.7%

Michael Geerts
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jay Dylan Hara Friend has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jay Dylan Hara Friend's performance.

Michael Geerts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Michael Geerts might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jay Dylan Hara Friend than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jay Dylan Hara Friend that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Geerts could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Michael Geerts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Hara Friend is ranked ATP: 315. Geerts is ranked ATP: 348.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Geerts may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Hara Friend could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jay Dylan Hara Friend
ATP Challenger
06.08.26	Spencer Johnson - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	2:0 ✺
04.08.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Jeffrey John Wolf	0:2 ✺
30.07.26	Benjamin Bonzi - Jay Dylan Hara Friend	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	Jay Dylan Hara Friend - Toby Samuel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWLWW
- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
20.08.26	Michael Geerts - Lucas Poullain	1:2 ✺
19.08.26	Michael Geerts - Radu Albot	2:1 ✺
18.08.26	Michael Geerts - Billy Blaydes	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.08.26	Lars Goran Verwerft - Michael Geerts	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Geoffrey Blancaneaux - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWWLW

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