Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelos - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday


	Jesse Flores		Matteo Covato

	1	2
			Watch
	1.32	3.1
	1.35	3.29
	1.31	3.15	Watch
	1.29	3.5
	1.32	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.4)	3.23 ↑ (2.72)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jesse Flores
71%

Matteo Covato
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jesse Flores has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Matteo Covato has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jesse Flores than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jesse Flores that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Covato than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Covato could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jesse Flores - Matteo Covato Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flores (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Flores is ranked ATP: 983. Covato is ranked ATP: 739.

Flores has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Covato is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Flores may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Flores might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jesse Flores
ITF Tournaments
12.03.26	Jesse Flores - Alvin Nicholas Tudorica	1:2 ✺
11.03.26	Oliver Okonkwo - Jesse Flores	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Daniil Kakhniuk - Jesse Flores	Flores J. retired ✺
03.03.26	Jesse Flores - Karl Poling	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Blaise Bicknell - Jesse Flores	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LW?WL
- Matteo Covato
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Eero Vasa - Matteo Covato	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Claude Ishimwe - Matteo Covato	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Ryan Nijboer - Matteo Covato	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Matteo Covato - Natan Rodrigues	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Ronald Hohmann - Matteo Covato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LWLLL

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