Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Brasilia 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday


	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva		Matias Soto

	1	2
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.4	2.7	Watch
	1.44	2.6	Watch
	1.47	2.8
	1.4	2.71	Watch
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.45	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.61)	2.66 ↑ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
64.9%

Matias Soto
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva's performance.

Matias Soto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matias Soto might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matias Soto than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matias Soto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Matias Soto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Sets - Reis Da Silva (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22.5 Games - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Reis Da Silva (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Reis Da Silva is ranked ATP: 208. Soto is ranked ATP: 316.

Reis Da Silva has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Soto's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Soto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Reis Da Silva might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Reis Da Silva won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
ATP Santiago
21.02.26	Vilius Gaubas - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Gabriel Diallo - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	Canceled ✺
06.02.26	Liam Draxl - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
30.01.26	Daniel Vallejo - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LL?LL
- Matias Soto
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Matias Soto - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Matias Soto - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	Canceled ✺
ATP Challenger
29.01.26	Alejandro Tabilo - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Matias Soto - Nicolas Kicker	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
25.01.26	Sean Cuenin - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 L?LWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
30.09.25	Matias Soto - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	0:2
11.03.25	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Matias Soto	2:0
ITF Tournaments
06.08.22	Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva - Matias Soto	0:2

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