Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelos, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday


	Juan Alejandro Hernandez		Tibo Colson

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.15	1.3
	3.78	1.3
	3.39	1.27
	3.25	1.33
	3.35	1.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.48)	1.3 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juan Alejandro Hernandez
27.7%

Tibo Colson
72.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juan Alejandro Hernandez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juan Alejandro Hernandez's form might have worsened.

Tibo Colson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tibo Colson's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Alejandro Hernandez than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juan Alejandro Hernandez, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tibo Colson than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tibo Colson, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Tibo Colson Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Hernandez will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Colson will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Hernandez is ranked ATP: 439. Colson is ranked ATP: 538.

Hernandez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Colson is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Hernandez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Colson will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Colson will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Juan Alejandro Hernandez - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.61%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Juan Alejandro Hernandez
ATP Acapulco
21.02.26	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.02.26	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Charles Bertimon	Hernandez A. retired ✺
11.02.26	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - John Hallquist Lithen	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.01.26	Vadym Ursu - Juan Alejandro Hernandez	2:1 ✺
19.01.26	Juan Alejandro Hernandez - Stefano Napolitano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 L?WLL
- Tibo Colson
ATP Challenger
16.03.26	Tibo Colson - Jesse Flores	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Tibo Colson - Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.02.26	Robin Catry - Tibo Colson	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Tibo Colson - Adrien Gobat	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Maxence Bertimon - Tibo Colson	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW

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