Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MADRID (SPAIN), CLAY - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 2 May 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Portugal	Sport TV
Romania	Digi Sport 2
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Karen Khachanov		Andrey Rublev

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.6	1.48
	2.65	1.48
	2.6	1.48
	2.74	1.52
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.62	1.49	Watch
	2.65	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.24)	1.49 ↓ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karen Khachanov
36.1%

Andrey Rublev
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

57.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karen Khachanov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Karen Khachanov's form might have worsened.

Andrey Rublev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Andrey Rublev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karen Khachanov than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Karen Khachanov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Andrey Rublev than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Andrey Rublev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	0%	47.4%

Karen Khachanov - Andrey Rublev Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Khachanov will win (votes: 20 - 52.6%). Rublev will win (votes: 18 - 47.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Khachanov: 36.7% – 68.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Khachanov is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Rublev is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Rublev could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rublev will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Rublev to win the game is with odds 1.5.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Khachanov won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karen Khachanov
ATP Madrid
30.04.23	Karen Khachanov - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:1 ✺
28.04.23	Karen Khachanov - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
20.04.23	Daniel Evans - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
19.04.23	Nicolas Jarry - Karen Khachanov	0:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.23	Andrey Rublev - Karen Khachanov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL
- Andrey Rublev
ATP Madrid
30.04.23	Yoshihito Nishioka - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
28.04.23	Stanislas Wawrinka - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
ATP Banja Luka
23.04.23	Dusan Lajovic - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Alex Molcan - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
21.04.23	Damir Dzumhur - Andrey Rublev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Monte Carlo
13.04.23	Andrey Rublev - Karen Khachanov	2:0
ATP Halle
15.06.21	Karen Khachanov - Andrey Rublev	0:2
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.19	Andrey Rublev - Karen Khachanov	0:2
ATP Halle
23.06.17	Karen Khachanov - Andrey Rublev	2:1
ATP Challenger
02.03.16	Karen Khachanov - Andrey Rublev	0:2

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