Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Laval, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday


	Karl Poling		Nicolas Arseneault

	1	2
			Watch
	1.79	1.95
			Watch
	1.76	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.98)	1.95 ↑ (1.72)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karl Poling
52.3%

Nicolas Arseneault
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karl Poling has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Karl Poling's performance.

Nicolas Arseneault has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nicolas Arseneault might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karl Poling than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Karl Poling that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Arseneault than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nicolas Arseneault could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Poling is ranked ATP: 552. Arseneault is ranked ATP: 714.

Poling is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arseneault is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Arseneault may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Arseneault will win today's game, with odds of 1.85.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karl Poling
ITF Tournaments
02.07.25	Karl Poling - Nicaise Muamba	2:0 ✺
18.06.25	Maikel De Boes - Karl Poling	2:0 ✺
11.06.25	Niklas Waldner - Karl Poling	2:1 ✺
21.05.25	Dan Added - Karl Poling	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Tom Gentzsch - Karl Poling	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLLL
- Nicolas Arseneault
ITF Tournaments
01.07.25	Nicolas Arseneault - Alafia Ayeni	2:1 ✺
12.06.25	Alejandro Jose Gandini - Nicolas Arseneault	0:2 ✺
08.06.25	Nicolas Arseneault - Roberto Cid Subervi	0:2 ✺
07.06.25	Nicolas Arseneault - Mwendwa Mbithi	2:0 ✺
06.06.25	Nicolas Arseneault - Lucas Andrade Da Silva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWW

Karl Poling - Nicolas Arseneault: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide