Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tiburon - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday


	Keegan Smith		Carlo Alberto Caniato

	1	2
			Watch
	1.85	1.85
	1.85	1.93
	1.84	1.84	Watch
			Watch
	1.85	1.87	Watch
	1.85	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 (1.85)	1.87 (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Keegan Smith
50.3%

Carlo Alberto Caniato
49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Keegan Smith have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Carlo Alberto Caniato have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlo Alberto Caniato than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Keegan Smith - Carlo Alberto Caniato Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 Games - Smith (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Smith (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Preview

Smith is ranked ATP: 590. Caniato is ranked ATP: 471.

Smith is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Caniato is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Smith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Carlo Alberto Caniato - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 49.73%, but this team recently wins 85% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keegan Smith
ITF Tournaments
26.09.25	Keegan Smith - Oliver Okonkwo	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Keegan Smith - Bjorn Svensson	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Keegan Smith - Nathan Ponwith	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Keegan Smith	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Keegan Smith - Sebastian Eriksson	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWLW
- Carlo Alberto Caniato
ATP Challenger
21.09.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Strong Kirchheimer	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Preston Stearns	1:2 ✺
04.09.25	Carlo Alberto Caniato - Federico Bondioli	1:2 ✺
02.09.25	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Carlo Alberto Caniato	0:2 ✺
29.08.25	Luka Mikrut - Carlo Alberto Caniato	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLLWL

Upcoming Matches