Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Fayetteville, AR, hard - Final

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday


	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes		Keegan Smith

	1	2
	2.04	1.74
	1.34	2.89	Watch
	2.06	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.01)	2.1 ↑ (1.74)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
53.7%

Keegan Smith
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

54.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes's performance.

Keegan Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Keegan Smith might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keegan Smith than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Keegan Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Keegan Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alvarez Valdes is ranked ATP: 598. Smith is ranked ATP: 591.

Alvarez Valdes is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Smith is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Smith will win today's game, with odds of 1.74.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
ITF Tournaments
20.09.25	Raphael Perot - Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Alexander Kotzen	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Orel Kimhi	2:0 ✺
17.09.25	Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Timo Legout	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group II
13.09.25	Daniil Glinka - Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWWW?
- Keegan Smith
ITF Tournaments
20.09.25	Keegan Smith - Sebastian Eriksson	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Khololwam Montsi - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
18.09.25	Braden Shick - Keegan Smith	0:2 ✺
16.09.25	Stefano DAgostino - Keegan Smith	1:2 ✺
13.08.25	Keegan Smith - Ivan Marrero Curbelo	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWW?

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes - Keegan Smith: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide