Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Cervia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 May 2026, Tuesday


	Lilian Marmousez		Federico Bondioli

	1	2
	1.72	2.01
	1.81	2.02
	1.76	1.94	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.68	2.03
	1.83	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.84)	1.97 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lilian Marmousez
52.9%

Federico Bondioli
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lilian Marmousez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Federico Bondioli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilian Marmousez than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lilian Marmousez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Bondioli than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federico Bondioli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lilian Marmousez - Federico Bondioli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Marmousez is ranked ATP: 314. Bondioli is ranked ATP: 344.

Marmousez is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bondioli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bondioli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Lilian Marmousez - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 59% of matches with these odds.

Federico Bondioli - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lilian Marmousez
ITF Tournaments
17.05.26	Filip Cristian Jianu - Lilian Marmousez	2:1 ✺
16.05.26	Lilian Marmousez - Georgii Kravchenko	2:0 ✺
15.05.26	Lucas Poullain - Lilian Marmousez	1:2 ✺
14.05.26	Adrian Oetzbach - Lilian Marmousez	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Oleksii Krutykh - Lilian Marmousez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWWW
- Federico Bondioli
ITF Tournaments
15.05.26	Gabriele Piraino - Federico Bondioli	2:1 ✺
13.05.26	Giuseppe La Vela - Federico Bondioli	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Jozef Kovalik - Federico Bondioli	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
05.05.26	Dino Prizmic - Federico Bondioli	2:0 ✺
04.05.26	Federico Bondioli - Emilio Nava	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWWLW

Lilian Marmousez - Federico Bondioli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide