Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Chisinau, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 27 May 2025, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Giustino		Alastair Gray

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.75
	1.96	1.75	Watch
	2.1	1.76
	2.03	1.75	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.94	1.79	Watch
	2.02	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.25)	1.77 ↑ (1.57)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Giustino
47.3%

Alastair Gray
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

58.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Giustino's performance.

Alastair Gray has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alastair Gray might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Giustino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alastair Gray than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alastair Gray could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	0%	63.6%

Lorenzo Giustino - Alastair Gray Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Giustino will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Gray will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gray: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Giustino (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gray (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Giustino is ranked ATP: 299. Gray is ranked ATP: 379.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Giustino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Giustino - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.1%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ITF Tournaments
23.05.25	Iliyan Radulov - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
22.05.25	Kenny De Schepper - Lorenzo Giustino	1:2 ✺
21.05.25	Robert Watzka - Lorenzo Giustino	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Clement Tabur - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Lorenzo Giustino - Miguel Damas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLW
- Alastair Gray
ATP Challenger
20.05.25	Alastair Gray - Lukas Pokorny	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
10.05.25	Charles Broom - Alastair Gray	2:0 ✺
09.05.25	Ewen Lumsden - Alastair Gray	1:2 ✺
08.05.25	Blake Mott - Alastair Gray	0:2 ✺
07.05.25	Ben Jones - Alastair Gray	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWWW

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