Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: TODI (ITALY), CLAY

Date: 15 August 2023, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: TODI (ITALY) 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Lorenzo Giustino		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Lorenzo Giustino
28.6%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
71.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Giustino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Giustino's form might have worsened.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Camilo Ugo Carabelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Giustino than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Giustino is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ugo Carabelli is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Giustino could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ugo Carabelli is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ugo Carabelli to win the game is with odds 1.32.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Giustino
ATP Challenger
01.08.23	Antoine Escoffier - Lorenzo Giustino	2:0 ✺
18.07.23	Lorenzo Giustino - Edas Butvilas	0:2 ✺
10.07.23	Lorenzo Giustino - Sandro Kopp	0:2 ✺
07.07.23	Calvin Hemery - Lorenzo Giustino	2:1 ✺
06.07.23	Lucas Gerch - Lorenzo Giustino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLLW
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Challenger
13.08.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Jan Choinski	0:2 ✺
12.08.23	Manuel Guinard - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
11.08.23	Benjamin Hassan - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
10.08.23	Ergi Kirkin - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
09.08.23	Tibo Colson - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWWW

Lorenzo Giustino - Camilo Ugo Carabelli