Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Pedro Martinez Portero

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.5	2.54	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.49	2.59	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.51	2.58	Watch
	1.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.73)	2.59 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
63.3%

Pedro Martinez Portero
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.8%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Sonego's performance.

Pedro Martinez Portero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pedro Martinez Portero might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Sonego that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pedro Martinez Portero than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pedro Martinez Portero could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Lorenzo Sonego - Pedro Martinez Portero Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Sonego (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Sonego will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Sonego will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Sonego (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Martinez Portero (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 38. Martinez Portero is ranked ATP: 47.

Both players are in bad shape now.

Martinez Portero could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sonego will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Sonego - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.83%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Marrakech
03.04.25	Vit Kopriva - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
20.03.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	David Goffin - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLWLL
- Pedro Martinez Portero
ATP Bucharest
04.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Pedro Martinez Portero	Martinez P. retired ✺
03.04.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Pedro Martinez Portero	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
20.03.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.03.25	Pedro Martinez Portero - Corentin Moutet	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
05.03.25	Fabian Marozsan - Pedro Martinez Portero	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 ?WLLL

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