Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 20 March 2025, Thursday


	Lorenzo Sonego		Mariano Navone

	1	2
	1.5	2.63	Watch
	1.48	2.6	Watch
	1.48	2.65	Watch
	1.48	2.62	Watch
	1.5	2.6	Watch
	1.49	2.64	Watch
	1.48	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.3)	2.63 ↓ (3.57)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
63.9%

Mariano Navone
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.3%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorenzo Sonego's form might have worsened.

Mariano Navone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mariano Navone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorenzo Sonego, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mariano Navone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Lorenzo Sonego - Mariano Navone Predictions

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Sonego will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 38. Navone is ranked ATP: 62.

Two players are playing changeable.

Navone could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Sonego will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sonego won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.25	David Goffin - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
ATP Dubai
24.02.25	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
ATP Marseille
14.02.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
12.02.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Luca Van Assche	Sonego L. walkover ✺
10.02.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLL?W
- Mariano Navone
ATP Indian Wells
08.03.25	Mariano Navone - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
07.03.25	Mariano Navone - Learner Tien	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
27.02.25	Mariano Navone - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
25.02.25	Mariano Navone - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
01.07.24	Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego	0:3

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