Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/64-finals

Date: 30 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	HBO Max, HBO Max
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Bulgaria	HBO Max
Croatia	HBO Max
Czech-republic	HBO Max
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Romania	HBO Max
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Spain	HBO Max
Sweden	HBO Max


	Lorenzo Sonego		Tomas Martin Etcheverry

	1	2
	1.80	2.00	Watch
	1.72	2.10
	1.78	2.04
	1.80	2.17
	1.74	2.04	Watch
	1.80	2.05
	1.86	2.07	Watch
	1.82	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.14)	2.06 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 41.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Sonego
53.6%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
46.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Sonego has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lorenzo Sonego's performance.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Sonego than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lorenzo Sonego that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Martin Etcheverry than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomas Martin Etcheverry could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Lorenzo Sonego - Tomas Martin Etcheverry Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sonego will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Etcheverry will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Etcheverry: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tomas Martin Etcheverry will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Sonego is ranked ATP: 72. Etcheverry is ranked ATP: 32.

Sonego has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Etcheverry is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Etcheverry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 55.65%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Mallorca
23.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Miomir Kecmanovic	1:2 ✺
21.06.26	Mariano Navone - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
ATP Halle
17.06.26	Ben Shelton - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLLW
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Exhibition Hurlingham Men
27.06.26	Flavio Cobolli - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1:2 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
24.06.26	Gabriel Diallo - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
ATP Halle
16.06.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
24.05.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Nuno Borges	0:3 ✺
ATP Hamburg
20.05.26	Tommy Paul - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLLL

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