Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 SANTA MARGHERITA DI PULA 4 (ITALY), CLAY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 24 April 2023, Monday


	Luca Castagnola		Tommaso Compagnucci

	1	2
	1.95	1.72
	1.94	1.77
	2.13	1.66
	2	1.73
	2.08	1.67	Watch
	1.93	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.21)	1.72 ↑ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castagnola
46.1%

Tommaso Compagnucci
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castagnola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Tommaso Compagnucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castagnola that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tommaso Compagnucci than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tommaso Compagnucci could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Recent matches Castagnola is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Compagnucci is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Compagnucci could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Compagnucci to win the game is with odds 1.76.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
16.04.23	Luca Castagnola - Gian Marco Moroni	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
03.04.23	Gianmarco Ferrari - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
11.03.23	Luca Castagnola - Daniele Capecchi	0:2 ✺
09.03.23	David Pichler - Luca Castagnola	1:2 ✺
07.03.23	Luca Castagnola - Paul Woerner	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLWW
- Tommaso Compagnucci
ITF Tournaments
22.04.23	Tommaso Compagnucci - Julian Ocleppo	0:2 ✺
21.04.23	Tommaso Compagnucci - Mathys Erhard	2:1 ✺
20.04.23	Tommaso Compagnucci - Alejo Lorenzo Lingua Lavallen	2:1 ✺
19.04.23	Tommaso Compagnucci - Giorgio Tabacco	2:1 ✺
17.04.23	Lukas Neumayer - Tommaso Compagnucci	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 LWWWW

Luca Castagnola - Tommaso Compagnucci: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide