Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Todi (Italy), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday

Referee: Drazic A. (Cro)


	Gianmarco Ferrari		Luca Castagnola

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.53	2.35
	1.55	2.29	Watch
	1.59	2.41
	1.55	2.36	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.33	Watch
	1.55	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.6)	2.33 ↑ (2.22)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gianmarco Ferrari
60%

Luca Castagnola
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gianmarco Ferrari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gianmarco Ferrari than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Gianmarco Ferrari - Luca Castagnola Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ferrari will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Castagnola will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ferrari is ranked ATP: 500. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 645.

Ferrari is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Castagnola is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ferrari could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ferrari will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ferrari won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gianmarco Ferrari
ITF Tournaments
03.08.24	Jacopo Berrettini - Gianmarco Ferrari	2:0 ✺
02.08.24	Gianmarco Ferrari - Lilian Marmousez	2:1 ✺
01.08.24	Gianmarco Ferrari - Filippo Speziali	2:0 ✺
31.07.24	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Gianmarco Ferrari	1:2 ✺
30.07.24	Luca Castagnola - Gianmarco Ferrari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWWW
- Luca Castagnola
ATP Challenger
12.08.24	Matthew Dellavedova - Luca Castagnola	0:2 ✺
11.08.24	Luca Castagnola - Lautaro Midon	2:0 ✺
05.08.24	Ryan Nijboer - Luca Castagnola	2:1 ✺
04.08.24	Luca Castagnola - Gabriele Piraino	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
30.07.24	Luca Castagnola - Gianmarco Ferrari	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
30.07.24	Luca Castagnola - Gianmarco Ferrari	1:2
03.04.23	Gianmarco Ferrari - Luca Castagnola	2:1

Gianmarco Ferrari - Luca Castagnola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide