Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuxi - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Evan Zhu

	1	2
			Watch
	1.37	2.85	Watch
	1.37	3.13
	1.35	2.96	Watch
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.36	2.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.47)	2.97 ↑ (2.47)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
68.5%

Evan Zhu
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Castelnuovo's performance.

Evan Zhu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Evan Zhu might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Castelnuovo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Evan Zhu than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Evan Zhu could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 352. Zhu is ranked ATP: 729.

Castelnuovo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Zhu's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Castelnuovo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Castelnuovo is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Aoran Wang	Wang A. Retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
24.04.26	Alastair Gray - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. Retired ✺
23.04.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Zhenxiong Dong - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 ??WWW
- Evan Zhu
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Evan Zhu - Yuta Shimizu	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Evan Zhu	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.04.26	Evan Zhu - Jie Cui	0:2 ✺
15.04.26	Evan Zhu - Yuta Kawahashi	0:2 ✺
09.04.26	Evan Zhu - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
21.08.23	Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu	2:1

Luca Castelnuovo - Evan Zhu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide