Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Bali 4 (Indonesia), hard - Semi-finals

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
	1.75	1.91
	1.82	1.85
	1.81	1.95
	1.84	1.87	Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.83	1.87	Watch
	1.82	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.84)	1.88 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
50.8%

Hayato Matsuoka
49.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

50.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luca Castelnuovo - Hayato Matsuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Castelnuovo will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 825. Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 930.

Castelnuovo is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Matsuoka is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Matsuoka could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Castelnuovo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
25.12.24	Emile Hudd - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2 ✺
24.12.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Bogdan Bobrov	2:0 ✺
22.12.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Ivan Iutkin	2:0 ✺
19.12.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Arthur Weber	0:2 ✺
18.12.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Nathan Anthony Barki	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWLW
- Hayato Matsuoka
ITF Tournaments
25.12.24	Shunsuke Nakagawa - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
25.12.24	Hayato Matsuoka - Giles Hussey	2:1 ✺
23.12.24	Hayato Matsuoka - Junhyun Lee	2:0 ✺
18.12.24	Hayato Matsuoka - Renta Tokuda	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.11.24	Hikaru Shiraishi - Hayato Matsuoka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
12.03.24	Luca Castelnuovo - Hayato Matsuoka	2:1
14.11.23	Hayato Matsuoka - Luca Castelnuovo	1:2

Luca Castelnuovo - Hayato Matsuoka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide