Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou 2 - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 8 September 2025, Monday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Ye Cong Mo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.7	2
	1.63	2.15	Watch
	1.69	2.13
	1.66	2.06	Watch
			Watch
	1.69	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.6)	2.09 ↓ (2.18)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
55.5%

Ye Cong Mo
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Ye Cong Mo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ye Cong Mo than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Luca Castelnuovo - Ye Cong Mo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Castelnuovo (votes: 1 - 50%). Mo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 486. Mo is ranked ATP: 718.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Mo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castelnuovo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ATP Challenger
07.09.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yuichiro Inui	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Filip Peliwo - Luca Castelnuovo	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yusuke Takahashi	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yurii Dzhavakian	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW
- Ye Cong Mo
ATP Challenger
07.09.25	Xing Dao Chen - Ye Cong Mo	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	Fajing Sun - Ye Cong Mo	2:1 ✺
ITF Tournaments
21.08.25	Sanhui Shin - Ye Cong Mo	2:1 ✺
20.08.25	Daniil Sarksian - Ye Cong Mo	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Seongbin Sim - Ye Cong Mo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
15.07.23	Ye Cong Mo - Luca Castelnuovo	0:2

Luca Castelnuovo - Ye Cong Mo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide