Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zhangjiagang, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday


	Luca Castelnuovo		Kaichi Uchida

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	1.91	1.8
	1.97	1.75	Watch
	1.95	1.88
	1.85	1.90	Watch
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.95	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.67)	1.8 ↓ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Castelnuovo
48%

Kaichi Uchida
52%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Castelnuovo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Castelnuovo's form might have worsened.

Kaichi Uchida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kaichi Uchida's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Castelnuovo than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Castelnuovo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaichi Uchida than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kaichi Uchida, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Luca Castelnuovo - Kaichi Uchida Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Castelnuovo will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Uchida will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Uchida (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Castelnuovo is ranked ATP: 486. Uchida is ranked ATP: 579.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Castelnuovo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Castelnuovo
ITF Tournaments
13.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yusuke Takahashi	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Yurii Dzhavakian	2:0 ✺
06.08.25	Alexander Chang - Luca Castelnuovo	Castelnuovo L. retired ✺
06.08.25	Luca Castelnuovo - Moerani Bouzige	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
31.07.25	Richard Berankis - Luca Castelnuovo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LW?WL
- Kaichi Uchida
ATP Challenger
25.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Takeru Yuzuki	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Qian Sun	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Yanki Erel	0:2 ✺
05.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Matthew Dellavedova	0:2 ✺
02.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWLLL

Luca Castelnuovo - Kaichi Uchida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide