Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Heraklion 11, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Heraklion 11 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Luca Staeheli		Mathieu Scaglia

	1	2
	1.18	4.16	Watch
	1.23	3.81	Watch
	1.17	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.34)	4.06 ↑ (2.87)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luca Staeheli
77.3%

Mathieu Scaglia
22.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.2%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Staeheli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luca Staeheli's performance.

Mathieu Scaglia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mathieu Scaglia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Staeheli than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luca Staeheli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathieu Scaglia than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mathieu Scaglia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Luca Staeheli - Mathieu Scaglia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Staeheli is ranked ATP: 984. Scaglia is ranked ATP: 1201.

Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Scaglia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Staeheli is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Staeheli
ITF Tournaments
23.10.25	Charles Bertimon - Luca Staeheli	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Luca Staeheli - William Rejchtman Vinciguerra	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Georgii Kravchenko - Luca Staeheli	2:0 ✺
07.10.25	Arthur Bonnaud - Luca Staeheli	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Ioannis Xilas - Luca Staeheli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWLWL
- Mathieu Scaglia
ITF Tournaments
23.10.25	Mathieu Scaglia - Stefan Adrian Andreescu	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	Mathieu Scaglia - Jeffrey Fradkin	2:0 ✺
16.10.25	Mathieu Scaglia - Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg	0:2 ✺
14.10.25	Vladimir Holban - Mathieu Scaglia	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Mathieu Scaglia - Matisse Bobichon	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWL

Luca Staeheli - Mathieu Scaglia

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Luca Staeheli - Mathieu Scaglia Predictions

Preview

Form

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