Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 June 2025, Tuesday


	Lucas Gerch		Guido Ivan Justo

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
			Watch
	1.92	1.9
			Watch
	1.98	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.1)	1.76 ↑ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Gerch
46.4%

Guido Ivan Justo
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Gerch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Guido Ivan Justo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucas Gerch than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guido Ivan Justo than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Lucas Gerch - Guido Ivan Justo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Gerch will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Justo will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Justo: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Guido Ivan Justo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gerch is ranked ATP: 532. Justo is ranked ATP: 394.

Gerch is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Justo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Justo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Gerch
ATP Challenger
16.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Pedro Rodrigues	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Christopher Li	2:0 ✺
10.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Gonzalo Villanueva	1:2 ✺
09.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Mateo Barreiros Reyes	2:1 ✺
08.06.25	Lucas Gerch - Arklon Huertas Del Pino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Guido Ivan Justo
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Renzo Olivo	Canceled ✺
02.05.25	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna - Guido Ivan Justo	2:1 ✺
01.05.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Hernan Casanova	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	Guido Ivan Justo - Gonzalo Villanueva	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna - Guido Ivan Justo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 ?LWWL

Lucas Gerch - Guido Ivan Justo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide