Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain) - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 22 April 2024, Monday

Referee: Poncho A. (Esp)


	Lucas Pouille		Thiago Monteiro

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	2.05
	1.7	2.05	Watch
	1.74	2.13
	1.75	2.13
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.03	Watch
	1.7	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.55)	2.08 ↓ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucas Pouille
54.8%

Thiago Monteiro
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Pouille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lucas Pouille's form might have worsened.

Thiago Monteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Thiago Monteiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucas Pouille than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lucas Pouille, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Thiago Monteiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Lucas Pouille - Thiago Monteiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pouille will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Monteiro will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pouille: 29% – 96%.

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Preview

Recent matches Pouille is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Monteiro is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Monteiro could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Pouille
ATP Bucharest
15.04.24	Gregoire Barrere - Lucas Pouille	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Lucas Pouille - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.24	Lucas Pouille - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Estoril
01.04.24	Lucas Pouille - Nuno Borges	1:2 ✺
31.03.24	Richard Gasquet - Lucas Pouille	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW
- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
15.04.24	Jaime Faria - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
03.04.24	Thiago Monteiro - Orlando Luz	0:2 ✺
01.04.24	Thiago Monteiro - Bogdan Bobrov	2:0 ✺
26.03.24	Orlando Luz - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
18.03.24	Adam Walton - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLWLL

Lucas Pouille - Thiago Monteiro: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide