Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Braga, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday


	Luka Mikrut		Sumit Nagal

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.68	2.25
	1.58	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.26	Watch
	1.57	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.84)	2.24 ↑ (1.84)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luka Mikrut
58.3%

Sumit Nagal
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luka Mikrut has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luka Mikrut's performance.

Sumit Nagal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sumit Nagal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luka Mikrut than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luka Mikrut that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumit Nagal than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sumit Nagal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luka Mikrut - Sumit Nagal Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mikrut (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luka Mikrut will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mikrut is ranked ATP: 242. Nagal is ranked ATP: 289.

Recent performances by Mikrut have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nagal is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Mikrut may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mikrut is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Luka Mikrut - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luka Mikrut
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Dusan Lajovic - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Luka Mikrut - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Kilian Feldbausch - Luka Mikrut	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Luka Mikrut - Zdenek Kolar	2:0 ✺
11.09.25	Oleg Prihodko - Luka Mikrut	Prihodko O. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLW?
- Sumit Nagal
ATP Challenger
01.10.25	Sumit Nagal - Roberto Carballes Baena	Carballes Baena R. retired ✺
30.09.25	Frederico Ferreira Silva - Sumit Nagal	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Sumit Nagal - Enrico Dalla Valle	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Sumit Nagal - Sebastian Fanselow	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Sumit Nagal - Francisco Rocha	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 ?WWWL

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