Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Irvine, CA, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 June 2026, Thursday


	Maria Aytoyan		Kaitlyn Carnicella

	1	2
	1.87	1.80
	2.07	1.67
	1.97	1.85
	1.98	1.72	Watch
	1.95	1.75
	1.92	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.65)	1.76 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Aytoyan
47.3%

Kaitlyn Carnicella
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

63.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Aytoyan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maria Aytoyan's performance.

Kaitlyn Carnicella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kaitlyn Carnicella might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Aytoyan than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maria Aytoyan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaitlyn Carnicella than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kaitlyn Carnicella could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maria Aytoyan - Kaitlyn Carnicella Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Aytoyan is ranked WTA: 1504. Carnicella is ranked WTA: 1228.

Aytoyan has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carnicella is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Aytoyan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Carnicella will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Aytoyan
ITF Tournaments
17.06.26	Claire Hill - Maria Aytoyan	0:2 ✺
12.06.26	Maria Aytoyan - Monika Ekstrand	1:2 ✺
11.06.26	Salma Ewing - Maria Aytoyan	0:2 ✺
10.06.26	Maria Aytoyan - Sophie Suh	2:0 ✺
03.06.26	Isabella Marton - Maria Aytoyan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLWWL
- Kaitlyn Carnicella
ITF Tournaments
17.06.26	Kaitlyn Carnicella - Salma Ewing	Ewing S. Retired ✺
13.06.26	Kaitlyn Carnicella - Monika Ekstrand	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Lily Taylor - Kaitlyn Carnicella	1:2 ✺
11.06.26	Kaitlyn Carnicella - Rachel Gailis	2:0 ✺
10.06.26	Kaitlyn Carnicella - Natalie Kha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 ?WWWW

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