Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santos, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday


	Mateus Alves		Hernan Casanova

	1	2
			Watch
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.51	1.55
	2.4	1.51	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.39	1.51	Watch
	2.35	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.55)	1.52 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mateus Alves
38.7%

Hernan Casanova
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

63.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mateus Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Hernan Casanova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mateus Alves than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hernan Casanova than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Mateus Alves - Hernan Casanova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alves (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Alves is ranked ATP: 548. Casanova is ranked ATP: 420.

Alves is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Casanova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Casanova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Casanova might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alves won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mateus Alves
ATP Challenger
12.04.26	Bruno Kuzuhara - Mateus Alves	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Karl Poling - Mateus Alves	Alves M. Retired ✺
31.03.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Mateus Alves	2:0 ✺
24.03.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Mateus Alves	2:0 ✺
23.03.26	Robin Catry - Mateus Alves	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 L?LLL
- Hernan Casanova
ITF Tournaments
28.04.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Hernan Casanova	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.04.26	Hernan Casanova - Juan Bautista Torres	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Gonzalo Bueno - Hernan Casanova	Casanova H. Retired ✺
09.04.26	Hernan Casanova - Facundo Diaz Acosta	Diaz Acosta F. Retired ✺
07.04.26	Conner Huertas Del Pino - Hernan Casanova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LL??W

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
13.05.25	Mateus Alves - Hernan Casanova	1:2
02.05.23	Hernan Casanova - Mateus Alves	0:2

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