Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz 2, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Santa Cruz 2 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Hernan Casanova		Juan Manuel La Serna

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.40	1.51	Watch
	2.41	1.5	Watch
	2.40	1.55
	2.32	1.54	Watch
	2.40	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.01)	1.53 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hernan Casanova
39.3%

Juan Manuel La Serna
60.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.8%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hernan Casanova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hernan Casanova's form might have worsened.

Juan Manuel La Serna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Juan Manuel La Serna's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hernan Casanova than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hernan Casanova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Manuel La Serna than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juan Manuel La Serna, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hernan Casanova - Juan Manuel La Serna Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Casanova (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Casanova is ranked ATP: 411., and La Serna is ranked ATP: 285..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Casanova may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Casanova has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Hernan Casanova - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 45.82%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Juan Manuel La Serna - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.18%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hernan Casanova
ATP Challenger
12.10.26	Hernan Casanova - Wilson Leite	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	Hernan Casanova - Alexandre Bobiere Rivero	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Hernan Casanova - Bernardo Munk Mesa	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Hernan Casanova - Wilson Leite	2:1 ✺
29.09.26	Gustavo Heide - Hernan Casanova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WWLWL
- Juan Manuel La Serna
ATP Challenger
10.09.26	Juan Manuel La Serna - Lukas Neumayer	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Juan Manuel La Serna - Filip Cristian Jianu	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Yanaki Milev - Juan Manuel La Serna	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Mykyta Mashtakov - Juan Manuel La Serna	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	Alexander Vasilev - Juan Manuel La Serna	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
19.10.25	Hernan Casanova - Juan Manuel La Serna	2:1

Hernan Casanova - Juan Manuel La Serna