Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: PAU (FRANCE), HARD (INDOOR) - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 2 March 2023, Thursday


	Mathias Bourgue		Ugo Humbert

	1	2
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.1	1.33
	3.4	1.3
	3.22	1.36
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	3.42	1.28	Watch
	3.25	1.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.64)	1.31 ↓ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mathias Bourgue
28.5%

Ugo Humbert
71.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

64.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mathias Bourgue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mathias Bourgue's form might have worsened.

Ugo Humbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ugo Humbert's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mathias Bourgue than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mathias Bourgue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ugo Humbert, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.9%	0%	42.1%

Mathias Bourgue - Ugo Humbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bourgue will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). Humbert will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bourgue: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bourgue is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Humbert is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Humbert could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Humbert will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Bourgue won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mathias Bourgue
ATP Challenger
28.02.23	Mathias Bourgue - Jelle Sels	2:0 ✺
27.02.23	Arthur Gea - Mathias Bourgue	0:2 ✺
26.02.23	Mathias Bourgue - Alexey Vatutin	2:0 ✺
22.02.23	Mathias Bourgue - Dominic Stephan Stricker	0:2 ✺
21.02.23	Michael Geerts - Mathias Bourgue	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLW
- Ugo Humbert
ATP Challenger
28.02.23	Calvin Hemery - Ugo Humbert	1:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
08.02.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert	Humbert U. retired ✺
Davis Cup World Group
04.02.23	Zsombor Piros - Ugo Humbert	Canceled ✺
03.02.23	Marton Fucsovics - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
25.01.23	Ugo Humbert - Gauthier Onclin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 W??WL

Latest Head to Head

Exhibition Challenge Elite FFT 2 Men
15.07.20	Ugo Humbert - Mathias Bourgue	2:0
ATP Challenger
07.09.18	Ugo Humbert - Mathias Bourgue	2:0

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