Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Guadalajara, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday


	Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila		Rodrigo Alujas

	1	2
			Watch
	1.5	2.4
	1.51	2.48
	1.20	3.90	Watch
	1.54	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.73)	2.78 ↑ (2)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila
65.9%

Rodrigo Alujas
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.5%

46.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila's performance.

Rodrigo Alujas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rodrigo Alujas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodrigo Alujas than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rodrigo Alujas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila - Rodrigo Alujas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ponce De Leon Gomila is ranked ATP: 1314. Alujas is ranked ATP: 761.

Ponce De Leon Gomila is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Alujas has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila
ITF Tournaments
05.11.25	Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila - Lawrence Bataljin	2:0 ✺
04.11.25	Maxwell McKennon - Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila	0:2 ✺
26.09.25	Alexander Kotzen - Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila	2:0 ✺
25.09.25	Nicholas Steiglehner - Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila - Ryan Fishback	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLWW
- Rodrigo Alujas
ITF Tournaments
05.11.25	Alan Sau Franco - Rodrigo Alujas	0:2 ✺
04.11.25	Joaquin Guilleme - Rodrigo Alujas	1:2 ✺
16.10.25	Dinko Dinev - Rodrigo Alujas	2:1 ✺
15.10.25	Etienne Niyigena - Rodrigo Alujas	0:2 ✺
10.10.25	Martin Van Der Meerschen - Rodrigo Alujas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLWL

Matias Ponce De Leon Gomila - Rodrigo Alujas: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide