Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sao Paulo, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sao Paulo 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Matias Soto		Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves

	1	2
			Watch
	2.30	1.53
	2.20	1.58
	2.43	1.57
	2.34	1.52	Watch
	2.40	1.55
	2.30	1.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.2)	1.55 ↓ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matias Soto
40%

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
60%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.8%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matias Soto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matias Soto than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matias Soto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Matias Soto - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Soto is ranked ATP: 253. Meligeni is ranked ATP: 709.

Now, both players are in good form.

Meligeni may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Meligeni is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Meligeni will win today's game, with odds of 1.58.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matias Soto - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.8%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - the odds 1.58 are the expected chance of winning is 58.2%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matias Soto
ITF Tournaments
23.07.26	Matias Soto - Rafael Tosetto	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Matias Soto - Gabriel Pascotto Tumasonis	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.07.26	Nicolas Mejia - Matias Soto	2:0 ✺
11.07.26	Matias Soto - Lorenzo Claverie	2:0 ✺
10.07.26	Lucas Andrade Da Silva - Matias Soto	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLWW
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves
ITF Tournaments
23.07.26	Bastian Malla - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	1:2 ✺
22.07.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Joao Eduardo Schiessl	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.26	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Lucas Andrade Da Silva	1:2 ✺
07.07.26	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	0:2 ✺
06.07.26	Brandon Perez - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matias Soto
ITF Tournaments
30.10.26	Matias Soto - Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca	✺

Matias Soto - Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves