Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Heilbronn - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday


	Matteo Martineau		Sander Jong

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.27
	1.53	2.35	Watch
	1.62	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.8)	2.26 ↑ (1.88)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Martineau
58.5%

Sander Jong
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

51.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Martineau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Martineau's performance.

Sander Jong has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sander Jong might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Martineau than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Martineau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sander Jong than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sander Jong could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Matteo Martineau - Sander Jong Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Martineau is ranked ATP: 326. Jong is ranked ATP: 869.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Jong may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Martineau - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.09%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Martineau
ITF Tournaments
29.05.26	Matteo Martineau - Marcel Zielinski	1:2 ✺
28.05.26	Matteo Martineau - Sydney Zick	2:1 ✺
27.05.26	Matteo Martineau - Michiel De Krom	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.05.26	Rei Sakamoto - Matteo Martineau	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ryan Seggerman - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWWLL
- Sander Jong
ITF Tournaments
26.05.26	Sander Jong - Marvin Moeller	1:2 ✺
22.05.26	Sander Jong - Raphael Perot	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Sander Jong - Tristan Berard	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Arthur Nagel - Sander Jong	1:2 ✺
13.05.26	Eric Vanshelboim - Sander Jong	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWWL

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